The Next Great Youtube Popularity Shift

Reactions are out, Video Essays are in.

Since 2022 seems to be the year of trend-forecasting, and since I hate to be excluded, I’ve decided to chime in with a forecast of my own: I predict that we are about to enter the next big content popularity shift on Youtube, one in which Video Essay Commentaries will replace Reaction Commentaries as the most popular form of Youtube video. 

Before I flesh out my hypothesis and supporting evidence, allow me to define these two forms of commentary video and how they differ. 

Reaction Commentary: An unscripted, usually short-form (under 30 min),  youtube video in which the creator reacts in real time to a subject primarily for comedic effect. 

Video Essay Commentary: A prescripted, usually longer-form (over 30 min), deep dive into a subject that contains some form of argumentative thesis, historical retelling, critical review, or other commentary that sets it apart from a typical Reaction Commentary video. 

Now that we’re all on the same page concerning how these two types of commentary differ, I’ll give you the short run-down of relevant Youtube history. Throughout Youtube’s lifespan, there have been a few notable shifts in what kind of content is the most popular on the platform. At the beginning, short sketches and comedy bites from creators like Bo Burnham and Fred Figglehorn reigned supreme. This wave was followed by the “Personality Youtuber” phase of the platform (think vlogs, storytimes, Zoella, Tyler Oakley, etc). Then came the age of the Reaction Commentary channel, whose giants include Cody Ko, Kurtis Conner, Drew Gooden, Danny Gonzalez, and Noel Miller. 

Looking back, I’ve noticed how my own content preferences line up almost perfectly with the preferences of other youtube users during these popularity shifts. I was first obsessed with Fred Figglehorn, then I was enthralled with the Personality Youtubers who for some reason we’re all British or Australian, and then I moved on to watching the white boys from Vine make reaction videos. 

I can’t say whether or not these shifts were due to the mysterious Youtube algorithm or if it was me simply outgrowing certain content after a while, but the fact that I seem to follow the general tide of other youtube subscribers has given me an inkling that the next great popularity shift is afoot. Because recently, my preferences have changed. 

It’s sad to say, but for the past two years or so, I haven’t been watching Reaction Commentary channels anymore. Don’t get me wrong - Cody Ko’s “That’s Cringe” series is Youtube heritage - but if that same video popped up on my recommended page today, I probably wouldn’t watch it. I just don’t find that style of commentary interesting or entertaining anymore. 

Perhaps part of that is due to Reaction Commentary videos running on the shorter side. Though I know the Youtube algorithm pushes longer videos to extend user watch-times, I genuinely prefer long-form youtube videos now. Most of my favorite videos from the past year have been video essays that have a run time of one hour or longer (like Jenny Nicholson’s “THE Vampire Diaries Video,” which stands at 2 hours and 33 minutes). There’s just something nice about not having to search for a new video every twenty minutes. With a longer video, I get the comfortable feeling that I can settle in and enjoy the ride. And according to my TikTok comments, I’m not the only one who feels this way. 

After making a TikTok explaining my recent Youtube preference shift, TikTok user @winkmaze commented, “This shift has slowly started to happen to me… now I can’t watch anything that isn’t at least 25 mins long.” Another TikTok user, @cactushour, brought up an interesting theory by pointing out, “long form content is the niche that Youtube has over platforms like TikTok.” Personally, I think @cactushour hit the nail on the head with this one. 

Why watch Youtubers react to cringe TikToks when you can watch actual TiTtokers directly duet the cringe video on the TikTok platform? We simply don’t need to outsource this type of content to Youtube anymore. With the abundance of reaction videos, vlogs, hauls, and skits on TikTok, long-form video content seems to be the one Youtube niche that TikTok can’t replicate. This theory is further supported by the fact that the most popular video of the last year for Cody Ko, Drew Gooden, and Kurtis Conner also happened to be their longest video of the last year. 

Besides the length aspect, I think the other key issue with Reaction Commentary channels is that all the giants of this genre are covering the same topics, and have been for several years now. Rather than explain these similarities to you, I’ve opted to display this phenomenon in collage format (This one’s for all you visual learners out there!) 

Please see my extremely academic set of collage evidence, courtesy of Google Slides, below:

There’s only so many times a person can watch reactions to weird commercials and out-of-pocket TikToks before the jig gets old. From my research, it seems that this kind of Reaction Style Content peaked somewhere around 2018. Out of Cody Ko’s top 100 most popular videos, the top 98 videos are at least one year old. The top 36 videos on his channel are at least 2 years old. Danny Gonzalez’s 55 most popular videos on his channel are also at least one year old. Kurtis Conner’s most popular video within the last year ranks 42nd in popularity. Across all the previously named Reaction Commentary giants, their average viewership per video has been decreasing by the millions since 2018. 

Perhaps this is because a plethora of new Video Essay Commentary channels have emerged over the past few years, many of which have creative and interesting niches not yet oversaturated on the platform. Some of my recent favorites include Cruel World Happy Mind, a channel dedicated to deep dives into internet scammers and exposing shady business practices. Or Fundie Friday’s, which uploads long-form reaction and storytime videos solely centered on Christian Fundamentalism. Or Sarah Z, who has found a niche in rehashing and exploring old Tumblr and internet Fandom cultures. Or PhilosophyTube, who gives in-depth explanations of Philosophy concepts and applies them to our modern culture in fresh and insightful ways. 

But the above-mentioned channels didn’t just stumble upon a popular niche - they created their channels because they were so passionate about their subject matter. As Tiktok user @pglover2447 commented, “They’re just so superior bc these people put in SO much time, research, and EFFORT in so you can tell it’s genuine and they’re truly passionate.”

Perhaps that’s the key ingredient missing from Reaction Commentary channels - passion. Though these creators may find genuine entertainment through reacting to cringe content, I doubt any of them would call themselves truly passionate about subjects like the Dobre brothers or weird Instagram ads. It feels like most of these channels stumbled into this type of content because it was an easy way to transfer their short-form comedy bites (which popularized them on Vine) into longer video format. Simply put: compared to Video Essay Commentary creators, Reaction Commentary creators seem to have a less authentic purpose on the platform. 

Despite this, I still believe the Reaction Commentary creators are genuinely entertaining and talented. I just hope they can use that talent to create deeper videos on subject matters they truly care about. If not, they may find themselves the “Old Guard” of Youtube, fighting against a tide of newer and more passionate creators.